Oscars 2008 or How They Learned to Settle the Writer Strike So There Would Be a Red Carpet

So it’s that time of year again, when glistening gowned starlets and well tuxed leading men come together for one, five-hour extravaganza that is the Oscars. Well, hopefully not five hours. I’ve loved watching the Oscars since childhood. It was always kind of a family event. A film geeks Superbowl. As I’ve matured, and now have actually seen most of this years nominees, speculating on who will walk away with the gold man is some good fun. Since the Oscars are a very political affair (featuring such things as the “We Owe You” rule W.O.Y ie. Russell Crowe winning for Gladiator the year after he should have won for The Insider; Marty winning for The Departed instead of Raging Bull, and so on) I like to break down my picks into the standard Will Win and Should Win, which aren’t always necessarily the same thing. The following are my picks on limited categories denoted by color, with some explanation. In the event of a Will/Should similarity the winner will be Yellow. I’ll have the winners updated Monday. Here’s hoping I win the office pool.







Best Motion Picture of the Year

• Atonement-Tim Bevan, Eric Fellnwe, Paul Webster
• Juno-Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick, Russel Smith
• Michael Clayton- Sydney Pollock, Jennifer Fox, Kerry Orent
• No Country For Old Men- Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
• There Will Be Blood- Paul Thomas Anderson, Daniel Lupi JoAnne Sellar

While I would love to see PT Anderson win (W.O.Y for Magnolia) I highly doubt it is going to happen. Though he’s my solid number two. Atonement was the foreign press (Golden Globes) little darling, and I think it will get snuffed here maybe picking up Costume and Score. That leaves safe bet and awesome film No Country the clear winner.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

• George Clooney for Michael Clayton (2007)
• Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood (2007)
• Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2007)
• Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah (2007)
• Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises (2007)

Nice crop of talented and deserving actors, but Daniel Day-Lewis (literally) pummels the competition to be drinking his milkshake holding a little gold man. Nuff Said.


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

• Cate Blanchett for Elizabeth: The Golden Age (2007)
• Julie Christie for Away from Her (2006)
• Marion Cotillard for Môme, La (2007)
• Laura Linney for The Savages (2007)
• Ellen Page for Juno (2007)

Marion Cotillard, who won the Golden Globe, clearly deserves this one. However Julie Christie fans cried foul and we might see her get it here. Dark Horse, Ellen Page if they want to push her as a hot new talent.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

• Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (2007)
• Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men (2007)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson’s War (2007)
• Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild (2007)
• Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton (2007)

Any other year, Tom Wilkinson would have this locked. Too bad Bardem cattle gunned his chances in the head. Hoffman had his gold man with Capote. Affleck might get it, but I’m betting he’ll be returning with a win in years to come. I love Hal Holbrook, but he’s just happy to be there. Winner: Bardem, and rightfully so, friendo!


Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

• Cate Blanchett for I’m Not There. (2007)
• Ruby Dee for American Gangster (2007)
• Saoirse Ronan for Atonement (2007)
• Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone (2007)
• Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton (2007)

Cate pretty much has this locked up. Her Dylan was the type of performance that the Oscars love. And she totally deserves it. Which is a shame cause Amy Ryan feels like she was pulled off the streets nonactor in Affleck's underappreciated Gone Baby Gone. I give Ryan her nod for authenticity, but I’m happy with Cate going home with the gold. Long shot: Ruby Dee winning a lifetimer for the slap heard around the world.


Best Achievement in Directing

• Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood (2007)
• Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for No Country for Old Men (2007)
• Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton (2007)
• Jason Reitman for Juno (2007)
• Julian Schnabel for Scaphandre et le papillon, Le (2007)

Love PTA but it’s the Coen’s year, and plus possibly the only time both brothers will get the directing nod instead of just Joel. Schnabel made a cinematic gem with Diving Bell, but the Golden Globes already got him, though he’s a good third bet. I’d love to see Gilroy get it too, but not before the rest, and I have a feeling he’ll return here. Reitman makes Daddy proud out doing the old man. And he’s just happy to be in the group, and companies get to market him as Oscar Nominated director Jason Reitman.


Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for Screen

• Juno (2007): Diablo Cody
• Lars and the Real Girl (2007): Nancy Oliver
• Michael Clayton (2007): Tony Gilroy
• Ratatouille (2007): Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco
• The Savages (2007): Tamara Jenkins

All of them are good but Daiblo Cody wins for her heartfelt, though I feel flawed, first screenplay. She’s the Hollywood it thing. I’d love to see Gilroy and I think he’s her only competition in the field with his tight, intelligent, and thrilling Clayton.


Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

• Atonement (2007): Christopher Hampton
• Away from Her (2006): Sarah Polley
• Scaphandre et le papillon, Le (2007): Ronald Harwood
• No Country for Old Men (2007): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
• There Will Be Blood (2007): Paul Thomas Anderson

Anyone who has read the book knows that the Coen’s film is one of the finest and faithful translations to screen ever. Any divergences are for the improvement of the piece. No Country had this before the others even showed up. Wildcard is Diving Bell.


Best Achievement in Cinematography

• The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (2007): Roger Deakins
• Atonement (2007): Seamus McGarvey
• No Country for Old Men (2007): Roger Deakins
• Scaphandre et le papillon, Le (2007): Janusz Kaminski
• There Will Be Blood (2007): Robert Elswit

Can I give it to all of them? No? Oh well. God, tough choices. First lets give some respect to Deakins for his double duty. Elswit too, though Clayton wasn’t nominated. Honestly I’d be happy with any of them. Unfortunately I think Deakins might knock himself out. Which leaves Elswitt and Kaminski in my mind. Both have some W.O.Y coming to them (Elswit for Magnolia and all PTA films, plus Good Night and Good Luck; Kaminski for Schindler’s List, redefining the look of a war film in Private Ryan, and Munich) Close call, but I think Kaminski wins on just the lensing used to put you in Bauby’s world.


Best Achievement in Editing

• The Bourne Ultimatum (2007): Christopher Rouse
• Scaphandre et le papillon, Le (2007): Juliette Welfling
• Into the Wild (2007): Jay Cassidy
• No Country for Old Men (2007): Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
• There Will Be Blood (2007): Dylan Tichenor

Love to see Tichenor get some W.O.Y for this and also Jesse James. Welfling has a shot for jump cut eye blinks. But Oscar tradition goes best picture goes best editing, so look for the Coens to run out of speeches.


*Special Note: I want to wish Best Song for Once. Everyone who hasn’t should go see the film. And Buy the Cd. I’m just so happy to see them perform. Truly love this movie. Should win hands down in my book.

So that’s it for my picks. Sorry for the categories that got short changed, but I don’t want to be here all night.

If you are intested in others opinions, check out the man himself, Mr. Clooney’s right here. Also please leave your own thoughts in the comments.

If you would like to fill out an Oscar ballot of your own, make sure you print out a copy awesomely provided by IMDB here.

So with that, I’m off to cover the Oscars. Toodles!